The
Dow rose about 30 points in midday trading Friday, or 0.1%. It is up 19% this year. The
Nasdaq was down 0.2% Friday and has gained 22% in 2021 while the
S&P 500, which was unchanged, is up more than 27% this year.
All three major indexes are set to close out the week in green…a festive Santa Claus rally. And this is the third straight year of gains for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, which are each not far from record highs. In fact, the S&P 500 has closed at an all-time high 70 times this year.
Optimism about
the effectiveness of vaccines helped fuel investor enthusiasm though, as did the steady hand of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which have mostly pledged to tread cautiously as they look to normalize monetary policy and slowly begin raising interest rates.
The
US economy wobbled a bit in the third quarter, with
growth slowing to an annualized pace of just 2.3%. Still, consumer spending remains relatively strong and the red hot housing market has continued to be a bright spot for the economy.
But investors will be watching the Fed closely in 2022.
Traders are currently pricing in a more than 50% chance that the Fed will raise rates for the first time since 2018 at its March meeting and that Jerome Powell & Co. will wind up hiking rates a total of three times next year
in order to fight inflation.
Investors will be watching Washington as well to see whether or not more stimulus might be coming from the White House and Congress after President Biden’s plan to
pass a Build Back Better Act has hit a snag.The market will also be keeping an eye on Covid cases to see if more businesses will delay return to work plans or be forced to impose tougher restrictions such as mask and vaccine mandates.
The winners and losers
Home Depot (HD) and
Microsoft (MSFT) led the Dow this year, with each blue chip stock surging more than 50% this year. Oil companies
Devon Energy (DVN) and
Marathon (MRO) were the
best performers in the S&P 500, rallying thanks to surging crude prices. Both stocks more than doubled.
Top techs such as
Apple (AAPL), Google owner
Alphabet (GOOGL) and
Nvidia (NVDA) were also big winners.
Biotech
Moderna (MRNA), one of several makers of Covid-19 vaccines, also prospered, gaining more than 140%. Rivals
Pfizer (PFE) and
BioNTech (BNTX) were up nearly 60% and 215% respectively.
Leisure stocks were big losers though.
Disney (DIS) was the biggest dog of the Dow, falling nearly 15% this year. The company was hurt by increased competition from
Netflix (NFLX) and others in streaming media.
Casino owners
Penn National Gaming (PENN) and
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) each plunged about 40% and were the laggards of the S&P 500.
A slowdown in tourism, particularly in Asia’s Macau gaming mecca, and a fierce battle for customers in the nascent legal US sports betting market hurt casinos.
Read More: Stocks surged in 2021, as Wall Street rolled its eyes at Covid
