Earnings questions, potential recession mean more selling could be ahead
The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen for six straight days, with many of those seeing broad selling typical of so-called “washout” days.
That can sometimes be a contrarian buy signal on Wall Street, but many investment professionals are skeptical that the selling is over. One reason is that earnings expectations for next year still show solid growth, which would be unlikely in the event of a recession.
“We know that if we start seeing a turnaround in the 2-year yields … and if we start seeing a turnaround in the dollar, that gives us the ability to bounce from these extremely oversold conditions,” said Andrew Smith, chief investment strategist of Delos Capital Advisors in Dallas. “But I have a hard time reconciling in my mind that the earnings story is going to be as good as we expect.”
Additionally, the dramatic moves in the bond and currency markets means that “something broke” and it may be smart to wait for that information to shake out, Smith said.
On the positive side, Smith pointed to a strong labor market and signs of continued spending on travel as a sign that the U.S. economy may be able to avoid a major recession.
— Jesse Pound
Futures open higher
Stock futures rose slightly after trading began at 6 p.m. Dow futures rose more than 60 points at one time, though those gains have since shrunk.
Nasdaq 100 futures had the biggest early jump of three, suggesting that tech may continue to outperform on Wednesday.
— Jesse Pound
S&P 500 takes out June low on Tuesday
Though Tuesday’s closing levels showed relatively modest daily moves, the S&P 500 fell below its previous intraday low for the year during the session. That move was seen by many as confirmation that the summer rally for stocks has failed.
The S&P 500 is now 24.3% off of its record high, and the Dow is also in bear market territory, down roughly 21.2%. The Nasdaq Composite, whose decline dates back to last November, is 33.2% below its high-water mark.
The next key metric for investors in the days ahead could come from the bond market, where the 10-year Treasury yield has surged to just below the 4% level.
— Jesse Pound, Christopher Hayes