Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX), a company manufacturing and selling a range of refined petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, marine and aviation fuels, premium base oil, finished lubricants, and fuel oil additives, has increased by 5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $184. CVX’s
CVX
Despite the healthy demand for physical crude oil, certain economic factors stand to dampen the outlook for oil demand. There is speculation that Saudi Arabia and other oil producers are likely discussing a production increase of as much as 500K barrels/day for next week’s OPEC+ meeting. Also, Covid-19 cases are once again rising in China, and the country’s struggle to get its Covid cases under control with its zero-Covid policy could impact the demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer. In addition, the continued rising interest rates in the U.S. also pose a threat to the oil market.
Now, is CVX stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 54% chance of a rise in CVX stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of CVX’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ’Event Probability’ and ’Chance of rising’ using the last ten years data
[1] Returns of -0.4% or lower over a five-day period on 1171 occasions out of 2517 (47%); Stock rose in the next five days in 620 of these 1171 instances (53%)
[2] Returns of 3.5% or higher over a ten-day period on 471 occasions out of 2518 (19%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 263 of these 471 instances (56%)
[3] Returns of 5.3% or higher over a twenty-one-day period on 565 occasions out of 2515 (22%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 303 of these 565 instances (54%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. CVX Peers shows how Chevron’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
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Read More: What’s Next For Chevron’s Stock?